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Tenders

Homes England Economic Forecasting and Scenario Services

Open
Deadline
9 days left
April 06, 2026
Contract Details
Category
Open Procedure
Reference
020523-2026
Value
£150,000
Location
North East England, United Kingdom
Published
March 20, 2026
Organization
CPV Code
Project Timeline

Tender Published

March 06, 2026

Deadline for Questions

March 30, 2026

Submission Deadline

April 06, 2026

Contract Start Date

April 30, 2026

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Budget
£150,000
Duration
13 months
Location
North East England
Type
Open Procedure
75
Quality Score/100
Good

Original Tender Description

Homes England requires quarterly macroeconomic and housing forecasting and scenario services for the UK, as well as regions and local authorities of England, in order to assist in its delivery of market intelligence and planning of current and future housing and regeneration investments through its newly established subsidiary, the National Housing Bank (NHB). As a public body audited by the National Audit Office (NAO), Homes England must maintain stringent governance and control standards, ensuring that all forecasting inputs, assumptions and outputs are robust, transparent, and fully auditable. Homes England uses baseline macroeconomic and housing forecasts, complemented by two distinct scenarios (upside and downside), to plan its delivery and expenditure in the coming financial years. These forecasts play a critical role across several core Agency functions. They are used extensively by our Risk, Finance, and Business Planning and Performance teams to support assessments of portfolio resilience, programme performance, and future market conditions. In particular, the forecasts underpin our International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation (IFRS) 9 calculations to measure Homes England's financial position. They also underpin strategic planning for future intervention, capital deployment and regeneration activity by highlighting potential turning points, emerging risks and structural shifts across housing and macroeconomic markets. It is essential that all forecasts and scenarios are based on reasonable assumptions, robust modelling evidenced by a track record of performance against observed data, and are consistent with current market standards, prevailing economic outlooks, and material risks. As such, the forecasts must be derived from a pre-existing, reputable model.

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Requirements & Qualifications

14 requirements across 5 categories

Submission (5)
Mandatory (1)
Compliance (1)
Technical (5)
Financial (2)
SUBMISSION REQUIREMENTS5
--The tender requires forecasting and scenario services to assist in the delivery of market intelligence and planning of current and future housing and regeneration investments.
--Forecasts are used by Risk, Finance, and Business Planning and Performance teams to support assessments of portfolio resilience, programme performance, and future market conditions.
--Forecasts underpin International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation (IFRS) 9 calculations.
MANDATORY EXCLUSION GROUNDS1
--Homes England must maintain stringent governance and control standards, ensuring that all forecasting inputs, assumptions and outputs are robust, transparent, and fully auditable.
ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS1
--Bidders must be able to provide quarterly macroeconomic and housing forecasting and scenario services for the UK, as well as regions and local authorities of England.
TECHNICAL CAPABILITY REQUIREMENTS5
--Forecasts and scenarios must be based on reasonable assumptions.
--Forecasts and scenarios must be supported by robust modelling evidenced by a track record of performance against observed data.
--Forecasts and scenarios must be consistent with current market standards, prevailing economic outlooks, and material risks.
FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS2
--Value: 150000 EUR
--Duration: 13 months

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Documents

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75
Good

Tender Quality Score

This tender for economic forecasting services is generally well-structured, with clear objectives and requirements. However, it lacks explicit evaluation criteria and details on the submission process, impacting its overall quality.

Score Breakdown

Legal Compliance75/100

The tender adheres to general procurement principles with a clear procedure and CPV code. Deadlines appear reasonable given the context. No disputes are noted. The organization's status as a public body implies regulatory compliance.

Clarity80/100

The description of services required is detailed and specific, outlining the purpose and use of the forecasts. Technical requirements are clearly articulated, including the need for a pre-existing, reputable model. However, the absence of specified evaluation criteria leaves some ambiguity.

Missing evaluation criteria
Completeness70/100

Most basic information is present, including title, organization, estimated value, and contract duration. The submission deadline and contract start date are provided. However, the lack of content for the tender documents is a significant omission.

No document content available
Fairness85/100

The tender is open, and the value is disclosed. The requirements for a pre-existing, reputable model are objective. However, the lack of explicit evaluation criteria could be perceived as a minor fairness concern, as bidders may not fully understand how their submissions will be judged. The absence of information on e-submission is also a drawback.

No e-submission specified
Practicality65/100

The contract start date and duration are specified. Financing information is not explicitly detailed. The lack of information regarding e-submission and the absence of document content reduce practicality for potential bidders.

No e-submission
No document content available
Data Consistency90/100

Key fields such as title, reference, organization, value, and deadlines are populated. There are no noted suspensions or disputes. Dates are logically presented.

Sustainability50/100

There is no explicit mention of green procurement, social aspects, innovation, or EU funding, which are common in modern tenders. This suggests a lack of focus on these areas.

Not green procurement
No social criteria

Strengths

Clear description of required services
Specific technical requirements
Open procedure
Value and duration disclosed

Concerns

Missing evaluation criteria
No document content available
No e-submission specified

Recommendations

1. Provide clear evaluation criteria to enhance transparency.
2. Upload full tender documents for bidder access.
3. Specify the e-submission process.

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